Knowing that I would try to wring an article from it, I was prepared to watch the premiere of Survivor: Pearl Islands with CSI-level scrutiny (Miami CSI, not Navy CSI), and even enlisted the help of TiVo so I could pause and rewind ad nauseum to catch every editing trick. The writers at Survivor-Central and beyond have convinced me that all the answers to the seasons are subtly woven into the fabric of each episode, and now I would join the ranks of these driven sleuths.

The premiere episode begins with the requisite dolphin shots, augmented by spectacular pods of whales breaching and splashing in what must have been CBS-coerced choreography. The location was established, we see our band of intrepid (and less-than-intrepid) explorers, Jeff talks about how hard it's going to be this time, but just as I'm scoffing he invokes that magical incantation that gets my heart pumping: "39 days, 16 people, 1 survivor." As the music reverberates in my memories and bones I am reduced to quivering jelly, incapable of taking notes.

It's been three days, and the wonder of TiVo has allowed me to watch the show with a little more composure and true perlustration, oh, and no commercials is really nice too. However, the break did nothing to sharpen my spoiler skills, so all predictions are still based on educated guesses rather than hardened evidence. Just bear with me a week or two.

Rupert, you're the man. Everybody who's watching thinks so. I don't know if he was prompted by CBS to steal the other tribe's shoes and I don't care, it set a great tone for the beginning of a pirate season. I'm confused that no one in Morgan ever seemed to notice or remark on it, but, then again, a lot of things about Morgan are confusing me. (Before I criticize them much further, I should admit that I'm a great fan of Ryan Shoulders, who has already shown Game savvy beyond anyone else in his tribe: he wanted to spend all the money, wanted to have a plan for the village assault, encouraged early tribal unity, and knows that you're in it until you're not (if that makes sense). I don't think he'll win, but I'd love it if he did.)

Okay, so it's a great big surprise that they're wearing the clothes off their back, but camp life doesn't seem too bad for either tribe. A spear gun (Morgan?), live chickens, dead chickens (Morgan?), tarps, fishing gear, pots, pans, spices (Morgan?), rope, lighters, candles, lanterns, water containers (Morgan?). Sure, life was "easy" in Marquesas, since it only took us 6 hours to make our one meal a day which gave us about 300 calories each, but this is a little ridiculous. Credit to Drake for forgetting bug spray and sunblock, restoring a little dignity to their survival experience.

So lots of great supplies for each group, and that means pirate raids. Is it too much to hope that everyone knows the challenges will involve raids, and, like good ol' pirates, they'll bury anything they don't want stolen whenever they leave camp? I guess we'll see soon enough.

Okay, context aside, a brief look at the characters.

Drake:

Rupert, you're the best, hope you can preserve your stamina, but I can tell you that it only gets harder; watch out for taking the provider role too seriously, no one really cares at the end of the day. It's too bad that the other three dudes on your tribe are dopes, and I can forsee some serious alpha male clashes in the near future. Jon, you're the comic relief. I hope "the lie" is something awesome and makes you seem a little redeemable; you have my sympathies for the clowning your friends must be giving you. The girls on this tribe are quiet but strong. Good looking tribe if they can keep it together.

Morgan:

Again, Ryan S., you know what's going on out there, but it seems like you'd better get in an alliance soon, you and Lill are on the outside right now, and you've gotta find at least one more person who's feeling vulnerable like you two. Is Darrah on your team? I wouldn't know, since I didn't see her after the intro (a good sign by spoilers standards). Andrew, brother, being the leader is not a good thing. Osten and Tijuana snuggling that first night, interesting, but it won't go anywhere; Osten looks like he's on the verge of losing it, and I don't mean his boxers (do I need to mention how ridiculous that was).

So, next week . . . . by the simple fact that they haven't gone to tribal council, Drake has the better shot at winning both challenges; teamwork is paramount in the beginning, and you can't fake it (a la Marraamu). Morgan is already a little divided, even though they all agreed Nicole should go, and the strength of their men may not be enough to overcome a unified Drake. I hope, for Morgan's sake, they get to raid the other camp and pick up some of the supplies they forgot in the village, but I definitely don't see them winning both challenges. If they go back to tribal council, it might be the quitter (and I don't think that it's Ryan S., Lill, Andrew, or Ryan O., and probably not Tijuana), unless there's a really good reason to vote out someone else (oh Ryan, redeem thyself!). If Drake goes, Jon goes. He's rubbing way too many people the wrong way, and even a dislike of Rupert by the other men won't overcome the hole he's digging. If he makes it past next week, he has a shot at redemption (like Kathy in Marquesas).

Early predictions: Final Four: Lillian (she'll make a good ally for someone), Darrah (the quiet one, lurking, non-threatening), Rupert (mostly because I want him to), Ryan O (not the "head coach," the "assistant coach," and that's good).

You can email Gabriel at gabriel@survivorskills.com

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